Stephen Roach gives stagflation warning, calls peak inflation absurd

Stephen Roach gives stagflation warning, calls peak inflation absurd

Stagflation is making a comeback, in line with former Morgan Stanley Asia chairman Stephen Roach.

He warns the U.S. is on a harmful path that results in larger costs coupled with slower development.

“This inflation problem is widespread, it’s persistent and likely to be protracted,” Roach instructed CNBC’s “Fast Money” on Thursday. “The markets are not even close to discounting the full extent of what’s going to be required to bring the demand side under control… That just underscores the deep hole [Fed chief] Jerome Powell is in right now.”

Roach, a Yale College senior fellow and former Federal Reserve economist, calls stagflation his base case and the peak inflation debate absurd.

“The demand side has really gotten away from the Fed,” he stated. “The Fed has a massive amount of tightening to do.”

Roach expects inflation to remain above 5% by means of the tip of the 12 months. On the present tempo of rate of interest hikes, the Fed would not meet that degree.

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“50 basis points doesn’t cut it. And, by ruling out something larger than that he [Powell] just sends a signal that his hands are tied,” added Roach. “The markets are uncomfortable with that conclusion.”

The Dow is on tempo for its eighth detrimental week in a row for the primary time since 1932. The S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq are monitoring for his or her worst weekly shedding streaks since 2001.

Roach began sounding the alarm on Seventies-type inflation dangers two years in the past, in the course of the early levels of the pandemic. He listed traditionally low rates of interest, the Fed’s straightforward cash insurance policies and the nation’s huge debt.

His warning bought louder final September on CNBC. Roach cautioned the U.S. was one provide chain glitch away from stagflation.

And now he sees much more causes to go on alert.

“I would add to that zero-Covid in China along with the repercussions of the war in the Ukraine,” Roach stated. “That will keep the supply side well-extended in terms of clogging price discovery through the next several years.”

CNBC’s Chris Hayes contributed to this report.

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